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变化中的全球联系:一场新冷战?

Changing global linkages: A new Cold War?
Journal of International Economics · 2025 · Gopinath, Gita、Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier、Presbitero, Andrea F.、Topalova, Petia

中文摘要

在地缘政治紧张局势加剧、旨在增强供应链韧性与国家安全的政策激增之际,全球联系正在发生变化。利用细颗粒度的双边数据,我们提供了沿地缘政治界限发生的贸易与投资碎片化的新证据,并将其与冷战初期进行比较。引力模型估计表明,自乌克兰战争爆发以来,地缘政治距离较远的国家集团之间的贸易、外国直接投资(FDI)与证券投资流动,相对于同一集团内国家之间的流动出现显著下降。尽管碎片化的程度目前仍相对较小,但冷战期间对峙的地缘政治集团之间的脱钩表明,如果地缘政治紧张局势持续、贸易限制政策加剧,碎片化可能大幅恶化。与冷战初期不同,一批不结盟的“连接器”国家正迅速变得重要,并在各集团之间发挥桥梁作用。

Abstract

Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, we provide new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines and compare it to the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade, FDI, and portfolio flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc. While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs.
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