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应对贸易不确定性:贸易融资的作用与溢出效应

Navigating trade uncertainty: The role of trade financing and the spillover effects
Journal of International Economics · 2025 · Calani, Mauricio、Margaretic, Paula、Moreno, David

中文摘要

本文利用目的地/来源地特定的贸易不确定性(TU)的外生变化,考察TU对企业外贸经营与信贷结果的直接效应和溢出效应。利用智利企业和银行交易层面的数据,我们首先表明,贸易不确定性的上升通过恶化企业营运资本而抑制出口增长。当出口主要以预付现金(cash-in-advance)融资时,这一效应尤为明显——这种支付方式意味着企业之间更短暂、更不持久的关系。其次,我们发现贸易不确定性的上升会引发银行—企业组合的再配置:从小企业转向大型进口商和参与全球价值链(GVC)的企业。我们的结果与银行的风险缓解渠道相一致:在贸易高度紧张时期,银行向被认为风险相对较低的企业发放更大规模的贷款。由此,贸易不确定性冲击通过银行信贷市场溢出至其他最初未受TU影响的企业。

Abstract

This paper exploits the exogenous changes of destination/origin-specific trade uncertainty (TU) to investigate the direct and spillover effects of TU on firms’ foreign-trade operations and credit outcomes. Using transaction-level data of Chilean firms and banks, we first show that increasing TU dampens export growth through a deterioration of firms’ working capital. This is especially true when exports are mainly financed by cash-in-advance, a payment mode that entails shorter and less permanent relationships between firms. Second, we find that increases in TU induce a bank-firm portfolio redistribution away from small firms toward large importers and firms involved in the global value chain (GVC). Our results are consistent with a risk-mitigating channel from banks that grant larger loans to firms that are perceived as relatively less risky during periods of high trade tensions. This way, TU shocks spill over to other firms not initially affected by TU through the bank credit market.
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