Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Katie Bollman、Judhajit Chakraborty、Leah K. Lakdawala、Eduardo Nakasone
中文摘要
针对女性的暴力——尤其是亲密伴侣暴力（IPV）——是全球女性面临的健康问题。我们研究了寒冷暴露对秘鲁女性遭受IPV的影响。利用将女性与天气暴露相匹配的数据集，我们发现寒冷冲击会增加IPV：低于-9°C的10度时使遭受家庭暴力的概率增加0.5个百分点。在更极端的温度阈值下，这些效应更大。我们提供证据表明，寒冷主要通过两个渠道影响IPV。第一，极端寒冷会降低收入。第二，极端寒冷会限制女性在户外度过的时间，从而可能增加其暴露于暴力伴侣的风险。据我们所知，我们是首个利用寒冷发生时间的变异，将通过收入变化影响IPV的冲击与通过室内时间发挥作用的冲击区分开来，从而衡量这两个渠道相对重要性的研究。我们发现，寒冷对IPV的影响主要由农业生长季期间出现的低温驱动，此时收入受影响最大：生长季期间低于-9°C的10度时使遭受IPV的概率增加1.6个百分点。相比之下，生长季以外的寒冷暴露对IPV没有统计显著的影响。
Abstract
Violence against women – in particular, Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) – is a health concern for women across the world. We study the effect of cold exposure on IPV among Peruvian women. Using a dataset that matches women to weather exposure, we find that cold shocks increase IPV: 10 degree hours below -9 °C increases the probability of experiencing domestic violence by 0.5 percentage points. These effects are larger for more extreme temperature thresholds. We provide evidence that cold influences IPV through two main channels. First, extreme cold reduces income. Second, extreme cold limits time spent outside of the household, potentially increasing exposure of women to violent partners. To our knowledge, we are the first to measure relative significance of these two channels by using variation in cold timing to distinguish shocks that affect IPV through changes in income from those that act through time spent indoors. We find that the effect of cold on IPV is mostly driven by low temperatures that occur during the agricultural growing season, when income is most affected; 10 degree hours below -9 °C during the growing season increases the probability of experiencing IPV by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, we find that cold exposure outside of the growing season has no statistically significant effect on IPV.