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网络攻击、运营中断与韧性措施投资

Cyberattacks, Operational Disruption, and Investment in Resilience Measures
Management Science · 2025 · Terrence August、Daehoon Noh、Noam Shamir、Hyoduk Shin

中文摘要

随着网络攻击的频率和规模不断上升,政策制定者和私营部门正在寻找应对这一威胁的方法。为实现这一目标而提出的主要举措之一是共享网络安全相关信息。尽管人们普遍认为信息共享能够同时提高行业利润和社会福利,但企业是否会自愿共享此类信息尚不明朗。本文考察了企业共享网络安全相关信息的激励、信息共享如何影响网络韧性投资,以及对福利的总体影响。我们发现,只有在竞争程度较低的市场且中断的影响较大时,企业才会自愿共享信息。在所有其他情形下,企业都选择不共享信息,尽管这可能带来潜在的福利收益。为促进信息共享,我们研究了一种排他性政策(即共享必须是相互的),并证明了该政策能够激励信息共享的市场条件。然而,当竞争激烈时,即使是排他性政策也无效,因为它会降低行业利润。为了给更强有力的干预提供依据,我们考察了强制企业披露其私有网络威胁信息的情形。我们证明,此类披露的机会确实存在,尤其是当网络韧性投资的成本较高时。然而,政策制定者在采用此类政策时必须谨慎,因为在投资成本不高的情况下实施这一干预会导致福利大幅下降。

Abstract

With the increased frequency and magnitude of cyberattacks, policymakers and the private sector search for ways to counter this threat. One of the main initiatives suggested to achieve this goal is sharing cybersecurity-related information. Although the general belief is that information sharing can increase both industry profit and social welfare, it is unclear whether firms would voluntarily share such information. In this paper, we examine the incentives of firms to share cybersecurity-related information, how information sharing impacts investments in cyber resilience, and the aggregate impact on welfare. We find that firms only voluntarily share information in less competitive markets when the impact of the disruption is high. In all other cases, firms elect not to share information, despite potential welfare benefits. To facilitate information sharing, we investigate an exclusionary policy (i.e., sharing must be mutual) and demonstrate market conditions under which this policy incentivizes information sharing. However, when competition is intense, even the exclusionary policy is ineffective because it reduces industry profit. To inform stronger interventions, we examine firms being mandated to disclose their private cyberthreat information. We demonstrate that an opportunity does exist for such disclosure, particularly when the cost of investing in cyber resilience is high. However, policymakers must use caution with such a policy because applying this intervention when investment costs are not high leads to a steep reduction in welfare.
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