感受同样的热度? 通过电力消费适应极端气温的城乡不平等

Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Caiquan Bai", "affiliation": ["Hunan University of Science and Technology", "Xiangtan University"]}, {"name": "Jing Cao", "affiliation": ["Tsinghua University"]}, {"name": "Ming Jun Huang", "affiliation": ["Fudan University"]}, {"name": "Xi Chen", "affiliation": ["Institute for New Economic Thinking", "Capital University of Economics and Business"]}, {"name": "Peng Zhang", "affiliation": ["Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen"]}]

中文摘要

本文利用新颖的高频用电量数据，考察中国城乡居民对短期极端高温冲击与长期气候变暖的适应是否存在不均衡。我们发现，城市和农村群体在短暂的逐日极端高温事件中均会增加用电量，但城市群体的反应显著更强，从而揭示出显著的适应不平等。我们记录了城市热岛效应的存在，但其在解释所观察到的城乡适应差距方面的作用可以忽略不计。相反，与适应能力密切相关的更为根本的城乡实际收入差距，几乎完全解释了这一观察到的差异。在长期中，我们发现过去5至20年的气候变暖显著促进了城乡群体的适应策略，但这些群体之间并未观察到明显差距。过去十年间，农村居民经历了更高的收入增长，这使其能够负担起与城市居民相当水平的耐用型适应设备。

Abstract

This paper leverages novel high-frequency electricity consumption data to examine whether urban and rural residents in China are adapting unevenly to short-run extreme heat shocks and long-run climate warming. We demonstrate that both urban and rural groups increase their electricity consumption during transient day-to-day extreme heat events, with the former showing significantly stronger responses, thus revealing a notable adaptation inequality. We document the existence of the urban heat island, but its role in explaining the observed urban–rural adaptation disparity is negligible. Instead, the more fundamental urban–rural real income gap, closely tied to adaptive capacity, almost entirely accounts for the observed difference. In the long run, we find that climate warming over the past 5–20 years significantly promotes adaptation strategy in urban and rural groups, but no evident disparity is observed between these groups. Rural residents have experienced higher income growth over the past decade, which enabled them to afford durable adaptive equipment that is on par with that of their urban counterparts.