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基于数据的自行车道规划:骑行量、拥堵与路径选择

Planning Bike Lanes with Data: Ridership, Congestion, and Path Selection
Management Science · 2025 · Sheng Liu、Auyon Siddiq、Jingwei Zhang

中文摘要

城市基础设施对可持续城市至关重要。近年来,市政府在扩展自行车道网络方面投入巨资,以满足不断增长的需求、促进骑行并减少排放。然而,将道路容量重新分配给骑行往往存在争议,因为有加剧交通拥堵的风险。本文提出了一种在规划自行车道时同时考虑骑行量与拥堵效应的方法。我们首先给出一个估计交通均衡模型参数的程序,该程序将用于预测驾车时间的逆优化方法与用于估计通勤者出行方式选择模型的工具变量方法相结合。随后,我们构建了一个规范模型,在道路网络中选择用于设置自行车道的路径,同时将骑行需求和驾车出行时间内生化。我们对芝加哥市进行了实证研究,汇集了描述城市环境的多个数据集——包括道路与自行车道网络、车辆流量、通勤者出行方式选择、共享单车出行、驾车与骑行路线、人口特征以及兴趣点——以估计扩展芝加哥自行车道网络的影响。据我们估计,按照模型所设定的方案新增 25 英里自行车道,可使骑行量占比从 3.6% 提高到 6.1%,驾车时间至多增加 9.4%。我们还发现,三种直观的自行车道规划启发式方法会导致更低的骑行量和更差的拥堵结果,这凸显了以整体性、数据驱动方法进行城市基础设施规划的价值。

Abstract

Urban infrastructure is vital for sustainable cities. In recent years, municipal governments have invested heavily in the expansion of bike lane networks to meet growing demand, promote ridership, and reduce emissions. However, reallocating road capacity to cycling is often contentious because of the risk of amplifying traffic congestion. In this paper, we develop a method for planning bike lanes that accounts for ridership and congestion effects. We first present a procedure for estimating parameters of a traffic equilibrium model, which combines an inverse optimization method for predicting driving times with an instrumental variables method for estimating a commuter mode choice model. We then formulate a prescriptive model that selects paths in a road network for bike lane installation while endogenizing cycling demand and driving travel times. We conduct an empirical study on the City of Chicago that brings together several data sets that describe the urban environment—including the road and bike lane networks, vehicle flows, commuter mode choices, bike share trips, driving and cycling routes, demographic features, and points of interest—with the goal of estimating the impact of expanding Chicago’s bike lane network. We estimate that adding 25 miles of bike lanes as prescribed by our model can lift cycling ridership from 3.6% to 6.1%, with at most a 9.4% increase in driving times. We also find that three intuitive heuristics for bike lane planning can lead to lower ridership and worse congestion outcomes, highlighting the value of a holistic and data-driven approach to urban infrastructure planning.
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