Management Science · 2025 · Fabio B. Gaertner、Jeffrey L. Hoopes、Stacie O. Kelley、Max Pflitsch
中文摘要
《通胀削减法案》针对美国大型企业设立了一项新的15%企业最低税,其计税基础为调整后的财务会计所得。尽管该最低税预计将在10年内筹集2220亿美元,但有人担心企业会操纵其会计盈余以降低税负,从而导致筹集的收入减少。我们采用事件研究方法,考察投资者在多大程度上认为这项税收会降低企业价值。我们考察了账面最低税颁布之前围绕关键立法进展的股市反应。研究发现,在立法过程中,目标企业的股票收益率在统计上显著低于非目标企业(约占企业价值的1.4%–1.8%)。总体而言,我们的发现与税收联合委员会的收入估计一致。在横截面检验中,我们未能发现最有可能通过盈余管理规避该税的企业获得更高正收益的证据,也未能发现最有可能将税负转嫁给消费者的企业股票收益负向程度更低的证据。总体来看,我们的结果表明,投资者并不预期企业会规避这项税收;相反,他们似乎预期企业最低税的相当大一部分将由企业缴纳,并由股东承担。
Abstract
The Inflation Reduction Act establishes a new 15% corporate minimum tax on the adjusted financial accounting income for large U.S. corporations. Although the minimum tax is estimated to raise $222 billion over 10 years, some fear firms will manipulate their accounting earnings to reduce their tax liabilities, resulting in less revenue raised. Using an event study, we examine the extent to which investors believe this tax will reduce firm value. We examine stock market reactions around key legislative developments leading to the enactment of the book minimum tax. Our findings show targeted firms experience significantly lower stock returns than nontargeted firms during the enactment process (about 1.4%–1.8% of firm value). In aggregate, our findings are consistent with the Joint Committee on Taxation’s revenue estimates. In cross-sectional tests, we fail to find evidence that firms most likely to avoid the tax via earnings management experience more positive returns. We also fail to find less negative returns for firms most likely to pass on the tax to consumers. Overall, our results suggest investors do not expect firms to avoid this tax. Instead, they appear to expect a significant portion of the corporate minimum tax to be remitted by firms and borne by shareholders.