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格林斯潘的回归:极度语无伦次的喃喃自语

The Return of Greenspan: Mumbling with Great Incoherence
Journal of the European Economic Association · 2025 · Shengliang Ou、Donghai Zhang、Renbin Zhang

中文摘要

本研究表明,由于名义刚性的存在,关于经济未观测状态的更多信息可能会降低社会福利。一方面,在信息嘈杂的经济中,由名义刚性引发的代价高昂的经济周期波动和价格离散程度均有所减弱。另一方面,信息较少的经济体因定价决策中协调无效率而遭受效率损失。货币政策影响这一权衡,因而与信息的社会价值相互作用。我们刻画了更多信息降低社会福利的条件。我们的发现对最优中央银行沟通策略,以及评估降低信息获取成本的新技术(如人工智能技术)的社会效益,具有参考意义。

Abstract

Abstract This study demonstrates that more information about the unobserved state of the economy may reduce social welfare owing to the presence of nominal rigidity. On one hand, costly business cycle fluctuations and price dispersions arising from nominal rigidity are muted in a noisy economy. On the other hand, an economy with less information suffers from efficiency losses due to inefficient coordination in pricing decisions. Monetary policy affects the tradeoff, and thus interacts with the social value of information. We characterize the conditions under which more information reduces social welfare. Our findings are relevant for optimal central bank communication strategies and for evaluating the social benefit of new technologies, such as AI technology, that reduce the cost of information acquisition.
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