American Sociological Review · 2024 · Hollie Nyseth Nzitatira、Trey Billing、Jared F. Edgerton
中文摘要
研究者长期争论广播节目如何影响了1994年卢旺达种族灭绝大屠杀的动态过程：一些学者认为广播影响重大，另一些学者则认为其影响被夸大了。本文通过考察“千丘自由广播电台”（Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines，RTLM电台）的节目覆盖是否以及如何与暴力行为的两个核心方面相关联——(1) 种族灭绝暴力在次国家层面的爆发，(2) 各次国家空间内对种族灭绝暴力的参与——从而为上述争论以及关于新旧媒体在集体行动中作用的争论作出贡献。利用关于RTLM电台覆盖的新数据，我们发现被覆盖的地区更有可能立即爆发暴力。然而，我们对种族灭绝参与情况的分析——采用了比以往研究更精确的参与测量和电台覆盖测量——未发现RTLM电台覆盖与次国家层面的参与水平之间存在显著关联。在说明这些结果对众多模型设定均稳健之后，我们提出理论解释：经由电台电波播出的信息促成了“临界规模群体”（critical mass）的形成，正是该群体在局部空间率先发动了种族灭绝。结论部分讨论了理解媒体在暴力次国家层面爆发中所起作用的重要性。
Abstract
Researchers have long debated how radio broadcasts affected the dynamics of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, with some arguing that the radio was highly consequential, and others suggesting such effects have been overstated. This article contributes to these debates—as well as to debates regarding the role of old and new media in collective action—by examining whether and how Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines (Radio RTLM) coverage was associated with two core aspects of the violence: (1) subnational onset of genocidal violence and (2) participation in genocidal violence across subnational spaces. Drawing on new data on Radio RTLM coverage, we find that areas with coverage were more likely to experience immediate onset of violence. However, our analysis of participation in the genocide—which uses more accurate measures of participation and of radio coverage than prior studies—finds no significant association between Radio RTLM coverage and subnational levels of participation. After illustrating that these results are robust to numerous model specifications, we theorize that information broadcast over the radio’s airways contributed to the creation of a critical mass that initiated genocide in localized spaces. We conclude by considering the importance of understanding the role of media in the subnational onset of violence.