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增长与再分配:对冲视角

Growth and Redistribution: The Hedging Perspective
AER: Insights · 2025 · Larry Samuelson、Jakub Steiner

中文摘要

我们基于Kelly(1956)的最优投资组合理论,考察财富再分配对经济增长的影响。增长最优政策将财富从“幸运的”、表现优于预期的个体再分配给表现不佳的个体,并以短视的方式最小化这种再分配的系统性成分。也就是说,最优政策最小化禀赋与结果之间的差异,反事实地将结果视为独立于禀赋。该结果中的短视性源于一个解耦论证,该论证使我们能够将规划者建模为独立地选择增长最大化政策与财富流转模式。(JEL D31, E23, G41, G51, H23, O41)

Abstract

We investigate the impact of wealth redistribution on economic growth, building on Kelly’s (1956) optimal investment portfolio theory. A growth-optimal policy redistributes wealth from “lucky” overperforming individuals to underperforming ones, minimizing the systematic component of this redistribution in a myopic fashion. That is, the optimal policy minimizes the discrepancy between endowments and outcomes, counterfactually taking outcomes as independent of endowments. The myopia in this result follows from a decoupling argument that allows us to model the planner as independently choosing a growth-maximizing policy and a pattern of wealth circulation. (JEL D31, E23, G41, G51, H23, O41)
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