NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Amy Finkelstein、Matthew J. Notowidigdo、Enzo Profili
中文摘要
我们使用动态因子时间序列模型估计大衰退对全国死亡率的影响。总体而言,大衰退使年均年龄调整死亡率降低了约 2%,且该影响持续至少十年。在一个校准模型中,我们评估大衰退对消费和死亡率的估计影响的福利效应,发现死亡率估计下降所带来的福利收益相对于消费估计下降所带来的福利损失在数量上十分显著。死亡率的估计下降在数量上也接近此前利用大衰退严重程度的横截面差异所得出的死亡率估计,这意味着大衰退对死亡率的一般均衡效应有限。更广泛地说,我们的研究结果表明,此前来自地方劳动力市场的证据——即衰退有益于健康——可以外推至全国性衰退可能造成的死亡率后果。
Abstract
We use a dynamic factor time series model to estimate the national mortality impact of the Great Recession. In aggregate, the Great Recession reduced the average annual, age-adjusted mortality rate by about 2 percent, with effects persisting for at least a decade. In a calibrated model of the welfare effects of the estimated impacts of the Great Recession on consumption and mortality, we find that the welfare gain from the estimated mortality decline is quantitatively significant relative to the welfare loss from the estimated consumption decline. The estimated mortality decline is also quantitatively close to prior mortality estimates using cross-sectional variation in the severity of the Great Recession, implying limited general equilibrium effects of the Great Recession on mortality. More broadly, our findings suggest that prior evidence from local labor markets that recessions are good for health can be extrapolated to the likely mortality consequences of nationwide recessions.