烃类基础设施政策的环境后果

中文摘要

我们研究旨在通过阻止化石燃料基础设施投资来“将碳留在地下”的政策。我们的分析基于一个烃类生产与运输模型，该模型纳入了管道基础设施与灵活替代方案（如原油铁路运输）之间的替代关系。我们将该模型应用于达科他输油管道（DAPL），该管道将石油从北达科他州输送至得克萨斯州，并于 2017 年在争议中建成。我们估计，若 DAPL 的建设被禁止，原本被阻断的管道流量中有 82% 将改由铁路运输。这种替代既带来私人成本，也造成地方环境损害，因为铁路运输比管道运输产生更大的地方外部性。

Abstract

We study policies that aim to “keep carbon in the ground” by blocking fossil fuel infrastructure investment. Our analysis relies on a model of hydrocarbon production and transportation, incorporating substitution between pipeline infrastructure and flexible alternatives, like crude-by-rail. We apply the model to the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), which moves oil from North Dakota to Texas and was controversially completed in 2017. Had DAPL’s construction been enjoined, we estimate that 82% of the blocked pipeline flows would move by rail instead. This substitution induces both private costs and local environmental damage, since rail transport imposes greater local externalities than pipelines.