工会对非工会工资设定的影响：威胁与议价

We provide new estimates of spillover effects of unions on nonunion wages. We work with a search and bargaining model, endogenizing union formation and including firm responses to unionization threats. Unions affect nonunion wages through a standard threat channel (firms raise wages to fend off unionization) and a bargaining channel (union jobs are part of worker outside options). Model estimates imply that deunionization accounts for a third of the decline in the US mean wage between 1980 and 2010, with half the effect due to spillovers. Both threat and bargaining channels are operational. The bargaining channel is more important.