中文摘要
越来越多的研究强调总体冲击如何塑造偏好与信念。本文综述整合了社会学、社会心理学和经济学的相关发现, 探讨这些冲击的重要性、经历冲击时所处的人生阶段为何至关重要, 以及其持久影响。文章考察了经济冲击(如经济衰退、通货膨胀和贸易冲击), 以及非经济冲击(如移民、战争、恐怖袭击、大流行病和自然灾害)。研究得出若干关键结论: 总体冲击影响政治偏好、风险态度和制度信任; 成年早期的经历具有更强、更持久的影响; 经济冲击通常使偏好向政治右翼转移, 而非经济冲击则依情境不同而产生更为多样化的结果。本文还评估了相关实证方法及其局限性, 以及这些效应背后的作用机制。通过分析冲击如何跨代改变社会价值观与行为, 本文为重大扰动对个体与集体决策的长期后果提供了洞见。(JEL D72, D81, D83, D91, E32, H23, Z13)
Abstract
A growing body of work highlights how aggregate shocks shape preferences and beliefs. This review synthesizes findings from sociology, social psychology, and economics to explore the significance of these shocks, how the period in which they are experienced matters, and their lasting effects. It examines economic shocks such as recessions, inflation, and trade shocks, alongside noneconomic shocks like migrations, wars, terrorist attacks, pandemics, and natural disasters. Key conclusions emerge: aggregate shocks influence political preferences, risk attitudes, and institutional trust; experiences during young adulthood have stronger, enduring impacts; and economic shocks generally shift preferences toward the political right, while noneconomic yield more varied outcomes depending on the context. The review also evaluates empirical methodologies, their limitations, and mechanisms underlying these effects. By analyzing how shocks alter societal values and behaviors across generations, this work provides insights into the long-term consequences of major disruptions on individual and collective decision-making. (JEL D72, D81, D83, D91, E32, H23, Z13)