← ireadpaper · 顶刊中的公共政策研究

财政刺激、存款竞争与影子银行的兴起:来自中国的证据

Fiscal Stimulus, Deposit Competition, and the Rise of Shadow Banking: Evidence from China
Management Science · 2025 · Viral V. Acharya、Jun “QJ” Qian、Yang Su、Zhishu Yang

中文摘要

中国影子银行的兴起及其伴随的金融脆弱性,可以追溯到2008–2009年全球金融危机(GFC)之后加剧的存款竞争。一家大型国有银行来自跨境资金流入的存款在金融危机后显著下降,该行通过发放更大规模的新增贷款,比其他大型银行更积极地支持了政府的财政刺激计划。与这家大型银行在分支网点层面重叠程度更高的中小型银行,更多地依赖影子银行业务,并发行了更多理财产品(WMP)——即短期限、表外的存款替代品。更大规模的理财产品给发行方带来了展期风险,这体现为新发理财产品的收益率更高、银行间市场借入利率更高,以及流动性紧张时期股市表现更差。

Abstract

The rise of shadow banking and attendant financial fragility in China can be traced to intensified deposit competition following the 2008–2009 global financial crisis (GFC). A large, state-owned bank’s deposits from cross-border money inflows fell significantly following the GFC, and it supported the government’s fiscal stimulus more aggressively than other large banks by issuing larger volumes of new loans. Small and medium-sized banks with more branch-level overlaps with this large bank relied more on shadow banking and issued more wealth management products (WMPs)—short-maturity, off-balance-sheet substitutes for deposits. Greater amounts of WMPs created rollover risks for the issuers, as reflected by higher yields on new WMPs, higher borrowing rates in the interbank market, and lower stock-market performance during liquidity stress.
在 ireadpaper 查看全部 →