中文摘要
利用详细的家庭数据,我们发现,在本地集聚经济中工作的家庭拥有较高的抵押贷款,且更有可能持有抵押贷款。渠道检验表明,本地集聚增加了住房与抵押贷款需求以及抵押贷款供给。抵押贷款的增加源于购买更大的住房以及更低的首付款。机制分析表明,本地集聚通过提升职业上升潜力并提供下行保护来影响抵押贷款。具体而言,我们发现本地集聚的影响对前景更佳的技能型雇员更强。此外,本地集聚削弱了失业与抵押贷款之间的负相关关系,这支持了本地集聚的下行保护作用。这些结果在工具变量分析、双重差分分析以及一系列稳健性检验下均成立。总体而言,我们的发现凸显了本地劳动力市场构成对家庭抵押贷款债务的重要性。
Abstract
Using detailed household data, we find that households working in locally agglomerated economies have high mortgage loans and are more likely to have mortgage loans. Channel testing shows that local agglomeration increases housing and mortgage demand as well as mortgage supply. The increase in mortgage loans is driven by purchases of larger houses and smaller down payments. Mechanism analyses document that local agglomeration affects mortgage loans by increasing career upward potential and providing downside protection. Specifically, we find that the impact of local agglomeration is stronger for skilled employees with enhanced prospects. In addition, local agglomeration weakens the negative relation between unemployment and mortgage loans, which supports the downside-protection role of local agglomeration. These results hold under instrumental variables analysis, difference-in-difference analysis, and a set of robustness checks. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of local labor market composition in household mortgage debt.