Return to the United States: Impact of Reshoring Announcements and Reshoring Risks on Market Valuation
Management Science · 2025 · Miyuki P. S. Cheng、Christopher Tang、Chris K. Y. Lo、Andy C. L. Yeung、Hugo K. S. Lam
中文摘要
随着发展中国家劳动力和物流成本飙升，COVID-19 大流行期间的供应链中断促使西方企业将某些具有战略重要性的产品或生产流程的部分离岸业务（由企业内部完成或外包）从外国“回流”至母国。尽管回流可以创造更多国内就业并降低供应链风险，但与回流相关的各种外部和内部风险对市场反应的影响仍不明确。这一观察促使我们首先进行文本挖掘分析，揭示了四种重要的回流风险类型，分别源于：(1) 外币波动，(2) 知识产权 (IP) 保护，(3) 回流类型（自营、内包或外包转外包 (OTO)），以及 (4) 回流区位选择（共和党主导州与民主党主导州）。随后，我们基于 2009 年至 2022 年间美国 132 家上市企业宣布的 281 项回流举措，考察这些风险因素如何帮助解释回流市场估值的差异。我们的实证分析表明，当企业在高货币波动环境下回迁，或从知识产权保护薄弱的国家回迁时，市场对企业回流公告的反应更为积极。然而，当企业的回流公告涉及内包回流业务，或回流区位为民主党而非共和党主导州时，市场反应更为消极。我们未发现市场对 OTO 回流有显著反应。
Abstract
With soaring labor and logistics costs in developing countries, supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic triggered Western firms to “reshore” some of their offshore operations (performed in-house or outsourced) for certain strategically important products or production processes from foreign countries to their home countries. Although reshoring can create more domestic jobs and reduce supply chain risks, the impact of various external and internal risks associated with reshoring on market reaction remains unclear. This observation motivates us first to conduct a text mining analysis, revealing four important types of reshoring risks inherent to (1) foreign currency fluctuation, (2) intellectual property (IP) protection, (3) reshoring types (in-house, insourced, or outsourcing-to-outsourcing (OTO)), and (4) reshoring location choice (Republican- versus Democrat-led states). We then examine how these risk factors help explain the variations in reshoring’s market valuation based on 281 reshoring initiatives of 132 publicly traded firms in the United States announced between 2009 and 2022. Our empirical analysis reveals that the market reacts more positively to a firm’s reshoring announcement when the firm reshores under a high-currency-fluctuation environment or from countries with weak IP protection. However, the market’s reaction is more negative when the firm’s reshoring announcement entails insourced reshoring operations or when the reshored location is a Democrat- rather than Republican-led state. We do not find a significant market reaction to OTO reshoring.