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资产端银行挤兑与流动性配给:恶性循环

Asset-Side Bank Runs and Liquidity Rationing: A Vicious Cycle
Management Science · 2025 · Zongbo Huang

中文摘要

我在一个无限期界的银行模型中分析针对信贷额度的挤兑,重点关注银行家与信贷额度借款人之间的策略互补性。借款人的恐慌性提款与银行流动性配给可以相互强化,形成恶性循环。我利用美国银行数据估计该模型,并量化由策略互补性产生的放大效应。这一放大效应占2008–2009年危机期间银行信贷收缩的三分之二。此外,我证明针对借款人的政策具有挤入效应,能够有效遏制信贷收缩。

Abstract

I analyze runs on credit lines in an infinite-horizon banking model, focusing on the strategic complementarity between bankers and credit line borrowers. Panic drawdowns by borrowers coupled with bank liquidity rationing can mutually reinforce each other, creating a vicious cycle. Using data from U.S. banks, I estimate the model and quantify the amplification effect arising from strategic complementarity. This amplification effect accounted for two-thirds of the contraction of bank credit during the 2008–2009 crisis. Moreover, I show that policies targeting borrowers have a crowding-in effect and can effectively contain credit contraction.
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