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国会席位分配:一种多目标优化方法

Congressional Apportionment: A Multiobjective Optimization Approach
Management Science · 2025 · Steven M. Shechter

中文摘要

每次十年一度的人口普查之后,会发生两起对美国选民具有重大影响的事件。首先是国会“席位分配”(apportionment),随后进行国会“选区划分”(districting)。席位分配决定如何将众议院435个席位分配到50个州,而选区划分则决定各州内划给众议员的地理边界。尽管选区划分及“不公正选区划分”(gerrymandering)的做法常常受到媒体和法院的高度关注,但如何在各州之间最优地分配众议员席位这一问题已被争论了近250年。历史上的各种方法(包括现行方法)各自满足某些其他方法并不保证满足的合意最优性标准。此外,没有任何一种方法能够保证优化某些合理的公平性度量(例如最小极差、最小偏差)。据我们所知,我们是首个提出并分析席位分配多目标优化方法的研究,使政策制定者能够识别帕累托最优的分配方案,并量化其在若干相互竞争标准之间的权衡。其中一些模型可以构建并求解为混合整数线性规划,而另一些则需要求解混合整数、非凸、二次约束二次规划。我们利用了近期软件的进展,使得能够在具有最优性保证的条件下求解这些问题。本研究的政策含义包括基于历史人口普查与模拟得到的帕累托曲线,这些曲线表明,存在以极小的其他目标牺牲为代价改进某些目标的机会。

Abstract

Two events, with major implications for U.S. voters, occur after each decennial census. First, congressional “apportionment” takes place, followed by congressional “districting.” Apportionment determines how to allocate the 435 seats in the House of Representatives across the 50 states, whereas districting determines the geographic boundaries assigned to representatives within each state. Although districting and the practice of gerrymandering often receive great attention in the media and courts, the best way to apportion representatives across states has been debated for nearly 250 years. Historical methods (including the current method) each satisfy some desirable optimality criteria that the others are not guaranteed to satisfy. Moreover, none are guaranteed to optimize certain reasonable fairness measures (e.g., minimum range, minimum bias). To our knowledge, we are the first to formulate and analyze a multiobjective optimization approach to apportionment, allowing policymakers to identify Pareto-optimal allocations and quantify their trade-offs between several competing criteria. Some of these models can be formulated and solved as mixed-integer linear programs, whereas others require the solution of mixed-integer, nonconvex, quadratically constrained quadratic programs. We take advantage of recent software advances that allow one to solve these problems with optimality guarantees. Policy implications of our work include Pareto curves from historical censuses and simulations, which suggest opportunities for improvement in some objectives at little sacrifice to others.
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