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技术赋能的金融数据获取、散户投资者与股市中的赌博式行为

Tech-Enabled Financial Data Access, Retail Investors, and Gambling-Like Behavior in the Stock Market
Management Science · 2025 · Taha Havakhor、Mohammad Saifur Rahman、Tianjian Zhang、Chenqi Zhu

中文摘要

技术进步降低了信息获取成本,为散户投资者创造了更为完善的信息环境。具体而言,应用程序编程接口(API)等新技术将海量的、类似机构所用的原始数据直接传送给普通投资者。尽管更高的信息可得性可能有益,但它也可能加剧散户投资者既有的交易缺陷。本研究利用面向散户投资者的最大免费API——雅虎财经API(Yahoo! Finance API)的突然停用,考察获取技术赋能的原始金融数据如何影响散户投资。我们发现,在API关闭后的一个月内,活跃散户投资者所青睐股票的散户交易量下降了8.6%–10.5%。剩余的散户交易整体上对未来收益的预测能力增强,表明API关闭后赌博式行为有所减少。此外,我们的随机对照实验证实了其内在机制:通过技术手段获取海量历史价格数据会增强个体的过度自信,进而导致其进行过度交易。本研究揭示了以技术为主导、面向散户投资者更广泛的数据开放所带来的一种非预期后果。

Abstract

Advancements in technology have reduced information acquisition costs, creating an improved information environment for retail investors. Specifically, new technologies, such as application programming interface (API), deliver high-volume, institutional-like raw data directly to Main Street investors. Although greater availability of information can be beneficial, it may also exacerbate retail investors’ existing trading deficiencies. Exploiting the sudden shutdown of Yahoo! Finance API, the largest free API for retail investors, this study examines how access to tech-enabled raw financial data affects retail investment. We find that retail trading volumes in stocks favored by active retail investors dropped by 8.6%–10.5% within one month of the API shutdown. The remaining retail trades collectively became more predictive of future returns, suggesting less gambling-like behavior after the API shutdown. Moreover, our randomized controlled experiment affirms the underlying mechanism: tech-enabled access to high-volume historical price data increases individuals’ overconfidence, which further leads them to engage in excessive trading. The study reveals an unintended consequence of technology-led, wider data access for retail investors.
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