气候变化的宏观经济影响: 全球与本地温度
The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global Versus Local Temperature
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Adrien Bilal", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research"]}, {"name": "Diego R. Känzig", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 本文估计，气候变化造成的宏观经济损害比先前认为的大一个数量级。利用全球气温的自然变率，我们发现，长期来看，升温 1ºC 会使世界 GDP 下降超过 20%。与以往研究所用的国家层面气温不同，全球气温与极端气候事件高度相关，这解释了我们更高的估计值。我们利用这一证据，在新古典增长模型中估计损害函数。照常排放情景下的升温意味着超过 30% 的当前福利损失，以及每吨超过 1,200 美元的碳的社会成本。这些影响表明，对美国这样的大国而言，单边脱碳政策具有成本效益。
Abstract
Abstract This article estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are an order of magnitude larger than previously thought. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1ºC warming reduces world GDP by over 20% in the long run. Global temperature correlates strongly with extreme climatic events, unlike country-level temperature used in previous work, explaining our larger estimate. We use this evidence to estimate damage functions in a neoclassical growth model. Business-as-usual warming implies a present welfare loss of more than 30%, and a social cost of carbon in excess of $1,200 per ton. These impacts suggest that unilateral decarbonization policy is cost-effective for large countries such as the United States.