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未化解的不良贷款处置

Nonperforming Loan Disposals Without Resolution
Management Science · 2025 · Ben Charoenwong、Meng Miao、Tianyue Ruan

中文摘要

利用关于中国不良贷款(NPL)交易的专有数据,我们记录了银行在本应用于化解不良贷款的处置交易中隐瞒不良贷款的现象。在这些交易中,银行提供融资,并保留信用风险和债务催收义务。交易价格与潜在信用风险相矛盾:尽管已逾期 4.5 年,中位数的不良贷款包仍按面值出售,折价率为零。大多数不良贷款包以溢价转售给银行的非国有借款人,这进一步支持了隐瞒的观点。受更严格监管的银行更多地隐瞒不良贷款,并实施更多非法隐瞒。隐瞒不良贷款的银行会增加僵尸贷款,表明无效的化解会加剧信贷错配。将隐藏的不良贷款纳入考虑,意味着中国的不良贷款总额是所报告数额的两至三倍。

Abstract

Using proprietary data on nonperforming loan (NPL) transactions in China, we document that banks conceal NPLs in disposal transactions that are supposed to resolve NPLs. In these transactions, banks provide financing and retain the credit risks and debt collection obligations. Transaction prices contradict underlying credit risks: Despite being delinquent for 4.5 years, the median NPL package is sold at face value with zero haircut. The majority of NPL packages are resold at a premium to banks’ non–government-owned borrowers, further supporting the concealment view. Banks under stricter regulation conceal NPLs more and engage in more illicit concealment. NPL-concealing banks increase zombie lending, suggesting that an ineffective resolution exacerbates credit misallocation. Recognizing the hidden NPLs implies the total NPLs in China is two to three times the reported amount.
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