中文摘要
力求说服选民的政客可能并不总能说出自己想说的话。采取与其政党相反的政策立场，或与其此前的政策宣示相矛盾，可能是有代价的。我利用计算文本分析方法，对来自法国两轮投票制选举的30,000份候选人竞选宣言进行分析，结果表明政客会考虑这些代价：他们遵循政党路线、坚持自身政纲，同时在需要争取更广泛选民时策略性地调整竞选传播，并宣传中立的非政策议题。我提供了提示性证据，表明这种竞选话语的温和化能够预测其执政后的更佳表现，因此可能为选民提供有价值的信息。
Abstract
Politicians seeking to persuade voters may not always be able to say what they would like to say. Adopting policy positions opposite to that of their party or contradicting their previous policy announcements may be costly. I use computational text analysis on 30,000 candidate manifestos from two-round French elections to show that politicians take these costs into account, by toeing the party line and sticking to their platform, while also strategically adjusting their campaign communication and advertising neutral non-policy issues when they need to reach a broader electorate. I provide suggestive evidence that this moderation of electoral discourse predicts better performance in office and may therefore provide valuable information to voters.