公众压力下的裁决

中文摘要

我们研究公众压力在何种情况下会影响裁判。我们表明，对于裁判拥有更大自由裁量权的“主观裁决”，观众压力会使裁决偏向有利于观众的一方；而对“客观裁决”则不存在这种偏倚。在裁判作出不利于观众的误判之后，以及当误判给观众造成的代价更高时，这种偏倚会加强。我们使用来自德甲联赛的裁判裁决与误判数据，并利用三个不同制度时期展开研究，由于视频助理裁判（VAR）的引入和新冠疫情，这些时期中观众压力与误判发生的可能性均有所变化。

Abstract

We study the circumstances under which public pressure affects judging. We show that crowd pressure biases decisions in favor of the crowd for “subjective decisions” with respect to which the judge has more discretion but not for “objective decisions.” The bias is strengthened after a judge's error against the crowd and when errors are costlier to the crowd. We use data about referees' decisions and errors from the Bundesliga. We exploit three regimes where, due to the introduction of Video Assistance Refereeing (VAR) and COVID-19, both crowd pressure and the likelihood of errors vary.