对抵押贷款还款可预期增加的开支反应：来自只付息贷款到期的证据

中文摘要

我们研究房主的消费如何对一项负面且可预期的可支配收入冲击作出反应：只付息抵押贷款摊还期的开始。我们通过事件研究方法识别支出行为，将覆盖丹麦全部抵押贷款的贷款层面数据与借款人详细的行政登记数据相匹配。面对平均相当于收入 9% 的分期还款增加，摊还期开始时消费下降相当于收入的 3%。支出的减少具有持续性。未能平滑消费的借款人杠杆率很高，并且在贷款到期时很可能被拒绝发放新的只付息贷款。

Abstract

We study how homeowners' consumption responds to a negative and anticipated disposable income shock: the beginning of the amortization period on interest-only mortgages. We identify spending behavior through an event study approach, by matching loan-level data that covers the universe of Danish mortgages to detailed administrative registries on borrowers. In response to an average increase in installments worth 9% of income, consumption drops by 3% of income, when amortization begins. The reduction in expenditure is persistent. Borrowers who fail to smooth consumption are highly leveraged and likely to be denied a new interest-only loan, upon expiration.