风险与全球供应链: 我们已知与需知之事
Risks and Global Supply Chains: What We Know and What We Need to Know
Annual Review of Economics · 2022 · [{"name": "Richard Baldwin", "affiliation": ["Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies"]}, {"name": "Rebecca Freeman", "affiliation": ["Bank of England", "London School of Economics and Political Science"]}]
中文摘要
近期的供应中断使全球供应链（GSCs）中的风险问题跃居政策议程首位，并造成一种印象，即如果全球供应链更短且更偏本土，或更加多元化，短缺本会不那么严重。但事实果真如此吗？我们首先回顾相关研究，这些研究考察了全球供应链所面临的风险及其带来的风险，以及全球供应链如何从以往冲击中恢复。随后，我们探讨全球供应链是否风险过高，起点是关于企业如何权衡成本与韧性的商业研究。我们提出，投资组合理论中的风险—收益框架是评估反风险政策是否合理的一种良好方法。接着，我们讨论如何衡量对外国冲击的敞口，并论证该敞口高于直接指标所显示的水平。最后，我们结合当前的政策提案与技术进步，考察全球供应链的未来，并指出风险—全球供应链关联这一领域的未来研究拥有丰富的议题。
Abstract
Recent supply disruptions catapulted the issue of risk in global supply chains (GSCs) to the top of policy agendas and created the impression that shortages would have been less severe if GSCs had been either shorter and more domestic or more diversified. But is this right? We start our answer by reviewing studies that look at risks to and from GSCs and at how GSCs have recovered from past shocks. We then look at whether GSCs are too risky, starting with business research on how firms approach the cost-resilience trade-off. We propose the risk-versus-reward framework from portfolio theory as a good way to evaluate whether anti-risk policy is justified. We then discuss how exposures to foreign shocks are measured and argue that exposure is higher than direct indicators imply. Finally, we consider the future of GSCs in light of current policy proposals and advancing technology before pointing to the rich menu of topics for future research on the risk-GSC nexus.