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有其父必有其子?1851–1911年英格兰的代际不流动

Like Father Like Son? Intergenerational Immobility in England, 1851–1911
The Journal of Economic History · 2024 · Ziming Zhu

中文摘要

本文利用基于1851–1911年全量人口普查数据构建的新链接样本,修正了对英格兰代际职业流动性的估计。我发现,传统的代际弹性估计受到经典测量误差的衰减,严重低估了父子在社会经济地位上的关联程度。以父亲结果的第二个度量作为第一个度量的工具变量,会使职业地位的代际弹性(β)从0.4提高到0.6–0.7。因此,维多利亚时代的英格兰是一个社会流动性有限的社会。本文还讨论了英格兰社会流动性的长期演变与国际比较。

Abstract

This paper uses a new linked sample constructed from full-count census data of 1851–1911 to revise estimates of intergenerational occupational mobility in England. I find that conventional estimates of intergenerational elasticities are attenuated by classical measurement error and severely underestimate the extent of father-son association in socioeconomic status. Instrumenting one measure of the father’s outcome with a second measure of the father’s outcome raises the intergenerational elasticities ( β ) of occupational status from 0.4 to 0.6–0.7. Victorian England was therefore a society of limited social mobility. The long-run evolution and international comparisons of social mobility in England are discussed.
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