Annual Review of Economics · 2022 · Charles I. Jones
中文摘要
思想的非竞争性带来了规模报酬递增，这一事实因保罗·罗默最近荣获诺贝尔奖而得到彰显。其一个含义是，经济的长期增长率等于规模报酬递增程度与研究努力增长率的乘积；这正是半内生增长理论的精髓。本综述从半内生视角解读过去与未来的增长。50多年来，由于教育程度提高、资源错配减少以及（全球）研究强度上升，美国的增长大幅超过其长期增长率，这意味着前沿增长未来可能显著放缓。另有一些力量则朝相反方向发挥作用。首先是“发现新的爱因斯坦”的前景：历史上，由于中国和印度的欠发达，以及阻碍女性发明者的壁垒，我们究竟错失了多少有才华的研究人员？其次是更长远的展望，即人工智能可能增强甚至取代人类作为研究人员。本综述通篇强调了进一步研究的诸多机会。
Abstract
The nonrivalry of ideas gives rise to increasing returns, a fact celebrated in Paul Romer's recent Nobel Prize. An implication is that the long-run rate of economic growth is the product of the degree of increasing returns and the growth rate of research effort; this is the essence of semi-endogenous growth theory. This review interprets past and future growth from a semi-endogenous perspective. For 50+ years, US growth has substantially exceeded its long-run rate because of rising educational attainment, declining misallocation, and rising (global) research intensity, implying that frontier growth could slow markedly in the future. Other forces push in the opposite direction. First is the prospect of “finding new Einsteins”: How many talented researchers have we missed historically because of the underdevelopment of China and India and because of barriers that discouraged women inventors? Second is the longer-term prospect that artificial intelligence could augment or even replace people as researchers. Throughout, the review highlights many opportunities for further research.