债务激增的余波
The Aftermath of Debt Surges
Annual Review of Economics · 2021 · [{"name": "M. Ayhan Köse", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Franziska Ohnsorge", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Carmen Reinhart", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Kenneth Rogoff", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
新兴市场和发展中经济体的债务已达到半个世纪以来的最高水平。在约九成的新兴市场和发展中经济体中，当前债务水平高于2010年；在半数新兴市场和发展中经济体中，债务占GDP的比重比2010年高出30个百分点以上。本文回顾了过去有助于降低债务负担的一系列可选方案，考察了正统方案（促进增长、财政整顿、私有化和财富税）与非正统方案（通货膨胀、金融抑制以及债务违约与重组）。可行方案的组合取决于国家特征和债务类型。然而，这些方案无一不伴随政治、经济和社会成本。与减债相关的挑战引发了全球治理问题，包括发达经济体能够在多大程度上更好地支持新兴市场和发展中经济体缓冲未来的潜在冲击。
Abstract
Debt in emerging markets and developing economies is at its highest level in half a century. In about 9 in 10 emerging markets and developing economies, debt is higher now than it was in 2010, and in half of the emerging markets and developing economies, debt is more than 30 percentage points of GDP higher than in 2010. This article reviews a menu of options that in the past have helped lower debt burdens. It examines orthodox options (enhancing growth, fiscal consolidation, privatization, and wealth taxation) and heterodox options (inflation, financial repression, and debt default and restructuring). The mix of feasible options depends on country characteristics and the type of debt. However, none of these options comes without political, economic, and social costs. The challenges associated with debt reduction raise questions of global governance, including to what extent advanced economies can better support emerging market and developing economies in cushioning prospective shocks.