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非正式老年人照护的长期后果及公共长期护理保险的启示

Long-run consequences of informal elderly care and implications of public long-term care insurance
Journal of Health Economics · 2024 · Korfhage, Thorben、Fischer-Weckemann, Björn

中文摘要

我们估计了一个关于劳动供给、退休与非正式照护的动态结构模型,以研究德国非正式照护的短期与长期成本。通过纳入劳动力市场摩擦和德国的税收与福利制度,我们发现,在德国公共长期保险计划缺位的情况下,非正式老年人照护会对劳动力市场结果产生不利且持续的影响,从而降低终身收入和未来的养老金待遇。照护的这些后果具有异质性,并取决于年龄、先前收入和制度规定。政策模拟表明,尽管公共长期护理保险政策财政成本高昂并会引致负面的劳动力市场效应,但其能够在很大程度上抵消照护的个人成本并增进福利,尤其是对低收入个体而言。

Abstract

We estimate a dynamic structural model of labor supply, retirement, and informal caregiving to study short and long-term costs of informal caregiving in Germany. Incorporating labor market frictions and the German tax and benefit system, we find that in the absence of Germany’s public long-term insurance scheme, informal elderly care has adverse and persistent effects on labor market outcomes and, thus, negatively affects lifetime earnings and future pension benefits. These consequences of caregiving are heterogeneous and depend on age, previous earnings, and institutional regulations. Policy simulations suggest that while public long-term care insurance policies are fiscally costly and induce negative labor market effects, they can largely offset the personal costs of caregiving and increase welfare, especially for low-income individuals.
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