Journal of Health Economics · 2024 · Spencer, Melissa K.
中文摘要
为缓解性传播感染(STI)风险上升而进行的行为调整,既可能提高也可能降低怀孕的可能性。本文测度了20世纪80年代和90年代艾滋病在美国各城市的出现与传播对出生和堕胎的影响。我表明,艾滋病流行使出生率提高了0.55%,使堕胎率提高了1.77%。我为解释怀孕增加的两个潜在机制提供了证据。一些女性为应对艾滋病流行而选择单一性伴侣关系,相应地结婚率上升、婴儿健康改善;另一些女性则从处方避孕方法转向使用安全套。这些行为变化降低了其他性传播感染的发生率,却同时增加了计划内和计划外怀孕。
Abstract
Behavioral adjustments to mitigate increasing risk of STIs can increase or decrease the likelihood of pregnancy. This paper measures the effects of the arrival and spread of AIDS across U.S. cities in the 1980s and 1990s on births and abortions. I show that the AIDS epidemic increased the birth rate by 0.55 percent and the abortion rate by 1.77 percent. I find support for two underlying mechanisms to explain the increase in pregnancies. Some women opted into monogamous partnerships in response to the AIDS epidemic, with a corresponding increase in the marriage rate and improvement in infant health. Others switched from prescription contraceptive methods to condoms. These behavioral changes lowered the incidence of other sexually transmitted infections, but increased both planned and unplanned pregnancies.