Estimating the effects of tobacco-21 on youth tobacco use and sales
Journal of Health Economics · 2024 · Abouk, Rahi、De, Prabal、Pesko, Michael F.
中文摘要
我们考察将烟草最低法定销售年龄提高至21岁(即“T21”)的效应。我们利用2012至2019年的“未来监测”(Monitoring the Future, MTF)调查数据和尼尔森零售扫描数据估计双重差分模型。结果变量包括香烟与电子烟的使用及销售。我们发现,12年级学生的电子烟和香烟使用出现了大幅下降。在21岁以下人口占比处于最高四分位组的县,T21还使香烟销售下降12.4%,电子烟销售下降69.3%。就机制而言,我们发现T21提高了身份证查验以及对使用这两种产品的感知风险。
Abstract
We examine the effect of raising the minimum legal sale age of tobacco to 21 (i.e., “T21”). We estimate difference-in-differences models using the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey data and Nielsen Retail Scanner data from 2012 to 2019. Outcomes include cigarette and e-cigarette use and sales. We find sizable reductions in e-cigarette and cigarette use for 12th graders. T21 also reduced cigarette sales by 12.4% and e-cigarette sales by 69.3% in counties with the highest percent quartile of individuals under 21 years of age. In terms of mechanisms, we find that T21 increases ID checking and perceived risks of using both products.