Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2026 · Hassan Afrouzi、Andres Blanco、Andres Drenik、Erik Hurst
中文摘要
我们构建了一个将现代劳动力市场流动理论与名义工资刚性相结合的模型，用以研究通货膨胀对劳动力市场的影响。名义工资粘性会激励工人在价格水平意外上升后进行工作到工作的转换（job-to-job）。这种动态导致总职位空缺上升，使看似紧张的劳动力市场与较低的实际工资并存——这是近期通胀时期观察到的两个事实。校准后的模型同时匹配了2021—2024年期间工人流动与工资的总体及横截面趋势。利用历史数据，我们表明，此前的高通胀时期也与职位空缺增加以及贝弗里奇曲线上移相关。我们的结果表明，政策制定者与学术界在通胀时期不应仅凭职位空缺与失业率之比（V/U）的上升就判断劳动力市场紧张，而应全面考察其他劳动力市场指标。
Abstract
Abstract We develop a model that integrates modern theories of labor market flows with nominal wage rigidities to study the consequences of inflation on the labor market. Nominal wage stickiness incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions after an unexpected increase in the price level. Such dynamics lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower real wages—two facts observed during the recent inflation period. The calibrated model jointly matches aggregate and cross-sectional trends in worker flows and wages during the 2021–2024 period. Using historical data, we show that prior periods of high inflation were also associated with increasing vacancies and upward shifts in the Beveridge curve. Our results suggest that policy makers and academics should be cautious about viewing the rise in the vacancy-to-unemployment rate as a sign of a tight labor market during inflationary periods without holistically looking at other labor market indicators.