劳动市场对关税的反应: 摩擦、动态与政策响应
Labor Market Responses to Tariffs: Frictions, Dynamics, and Policy Responses
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Rafael Dix-Carneiro", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Brian K. Kovak", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
本文介绍当代经济学家用于理解贸易与贸易政策对劳动力市场影响的证据及相关建模框架，尤其强调劳动力市场摩擦与调整动态。贸易冲击的影响因行业、地区和职业而异，这表明劳动力市场中存在重要的调整摩擦；同时，这些影响随时间缓慢演变，意味着需要动态框架来合理解释这种缓慢的转型过程。在回顾该文献的关键见解之后，我们讨论了旨在减轻劳动者所承受的成本、确保贸易收益得到更公平分享的相关政策。
Abstract
This article introduces the evidence and associated modeling frameworks contemporary economists use to understand the effects of trade and trade policy on labor markets, with a particular emphasis on labor-market frictions and adjustment dynamics. The effects of trade shocks differ across industries, regions, and occupations, implying the presence of important adjustment frictions in labor markets, and these effects evolve slowly over time, implying the need for dynamic frameworks rationalizing slow transitions. After reviewing the key insights from this literature, we discuss policies aimed at mitigating costs to workers and ensuring that the gains from trade are shared more equitably.