动态的个体、静态的街区: 贫困街区的迁移与收入变化

NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Andrew Garin", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Ethan Jenkins", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Evan E. Mast", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Bryan A. Stuart", "affiliation": []}]

中文摘要

本文利用将居住地点与收入相关联的新行政数据，研究贫困社区中的迁移与收入动态。贫困社区的人口迁出率高于其他地区，且离开贫困社区的大多数居民迁往了更富裕的社区。贫困社区居民的收入也呈现出显著的流动性，其平均增长率与较富裕地区相近。基于个体特异性、企业特异性薪酬变化所做的估计表明，收入增长与迁往更好社区相关联。这导致基期居住在贫困社区的队列，其收入增长速度是这些社区同期居民收入增长速度的两倍以上。总体而言，我们的研究结果凸显了一个此前未被充分重视的、贫困社区持续贫困的原因：那些初始收入增长的居民往往会迁离该社区。

Abstract

This paper studies migration and earnings dynamics in poor neighborhoods using new administrative data linking residential location and earnings. Out-migration rates are higher in poor neighborhoods than elsewhere, and the majority of people who leave a poor neighborhood move to a richer one. Residents of poor neighborhoods also see significant earnings mobility, with average growth rates similar to richer areas. Estimates based on idiosyncratic, firm-specific pay changes show that increases in earnings are linked to migration to better neighborhoods. This results in the earnings of the cohort who lived in a poor neighborhood at baseline growing more than twice as fast as the earnings of these neighborhoods' contemporaneous residents. Overall, our results highlight an underappreciated reason why poor neighborhoods stay poor: initial residents whose earnings grow tend to move away.