International Economic Review · 2026 · Hanwei Huang、Jiandong Ju、Vivian Z. Yue
中文摘要
我们研究中国融入全球经济过程中生产与贸易模式的演变。利用企业层面的微观数据,我们记录了生产和出口在行业之间的转移,以及行业内部在企业之间的转移。我们量化了一个包含异质性企业的李嘉图—赫克歇尔—俄林模型来解释这些变化。反事实分析表明,资本深化推动中国的生产和出口朝更高的资本密集度转变,而偏向劳动的生产率增长则形成了抵消力量。该模型呈现出中国贸易开放度的倒U型格局——在2000年代中期达到峰值并在2020年代持续下降——与此同时,世界对中国出口的暴露程度持续上升。
Abstract
ABSTRACT We study the evolution of China's production and trade patterns during its integration into the global economy. Using firm‐level microdata, we document how production and exports shifted across industries and within industries across firms. We quantify a Ricardian–Heckscher–Ohlin model with heterogeneous firms to account for these changes. Counterfactuals show capital deepening pushed China's production and exports toward greater capital intensity, while labor‐biased productivity growth provided an offsetting force. The model generates an inverted‐U pattern in China's trade openness—peaking in the mid‐2000s and declining through the 2020s—alongside a continuous rise in the world's exposure to Chinese exports.