中文摘要
大学贷款为接受教育提供了便利, 但还款负担可能扭曲完成教育后的人力资本投资。我们通过一个刻画个体在借贷/储蓄、劳动供给以及有成本的人力资本投资方面动态决策的结构模型, 考察大学贷款及贷款偿还政策的作用。我们利用 NLSY79 数据估计了该模型的两个版本: 一个采用自然借贷约束, 另一个采用参数化借贷约束。反事实模拟表明, 相对于标准的固定还款计划, 收入驱动型还款 (IDR) 计划会温和地提高教育获得、终生收入与个体福利; 在考虑终生所得税后, 还能增加政府收入。
Abstract
ABSTRACT College loans facilitate access to education, but the repayment burden may distort posteducation human capital investment. We examine the role of college loans and loan repayment policies through a structural model of individuals' dynamic decisions on borrowing/saving, labor supply, and costly human capital investment. We estimate two versions of the model using data from NLSY79: one with natural borrowing limits and another with parameterized limits. Counterfactual simulations suggest that, relative to the standard fixed repayment plan, income‐driven repayment (IDR) plans modestly increase educational attainment, lifetime earnings, and individual welfare; accounting for lifetime income taxes, they also increase government revenue.