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累进性如何影响减税乘数?

How Does Progressivity Affect the Tax Cut Multiplier?
International Economic Review · 2026 · Christian Gillitzer

中文摘要

个人所得税减税的瞄准方式如何影响产出乘数?本文利用一个异质性主体新凯恩斯模型提供定量证据,该模型经校准以匹配美国的收入、财富、边际税率与边际消费倾向分布。劳动供给在集约边际上由家庭偏好决定,在广延边际上由搜寻摩擦决定。该模型在全国与跨区域两种情境下评估针对收入分布底层90%(B90%)与顶层10%群体的减税,复制了具有影响力的实证研究设计。B90 减税产生更大的产出效应,而激励效应在传导机制中发挥核心作用。

Abstract

ABSTRACT How does the targeting of personal income tax cuts affect the output multiplier? This paper provides quantitative evidence using a heterogeneous‐agent New‐Keynesian model calibrated to match US distributions of income, wealth, marginal tax rates, and marginal propensities to consume. Labor supply is determined by household preferences on the intensive margin and search frictions on the extensive margin. The model evaluates tax cuts for the bottom‐90 (B90%) and top‐10% of the income distribution in national and cross‐region settings, replicating influential empirical research designs. B90 tax cuts generate larger output effects while incentive effects play a central role in transmission.
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