工资下限会增加残疾工人的就业风险吗？来自最低工资提高与次最低工资条款废除的证据
Do Wage Floors Increase Employment Risk for Workers with Disabilities? Evidence from Minimum Wage Increases and Subminimum Wage Repeal
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Roisin O'Neill", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Shailee Manandhar", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Douglas L. Kruse", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
残疾人在低薪工作中占比过高，这引发了人们的担忧：更高的工资下限可能减少其就业机会，尤其是对残疾程度更严重的劳动者而言。本文利用2010–2023年美国社区调查（ACS）数据，考察了各州最低工资上调以及各州终止残疾人次最低工资制度对残疾人就业结果的影响。我们几乎没有发现证据表明，最低工资上调会降低残疾人的就业率或劳动参与率，即便对残疾程度更严重的群体也是如此。尽管许多估计值在统计上不够精确，但置信区间总体上排除了具有经济意义的负向就业效应。同样，我们没有发现证据表明终止次最低工资会减少受影响劳动者的就业机会，一些估计结果表明，对于最可能曾在次最低工资安排下就业的群体，存在正向的就业效应。这些收益可能反映了通常伴随废除次最低工资制度而来的配套政策，例如“就业优先”（Employment First）倡议。总体而言，研究结果几乎不支持这样一种观点，即更高的工资下限会给残疾人造成不成比例的就业障碍。
Abstract
People with disabilities are disproportionately represented in low-wage work, raising concerns that higher wage floors may reduce their employment opportunities, particularly for workers with more severe disabilities. We examine the effects of state minimum wage increases and state subminimum wage terminations on employment outcomes for people with disabilities using American Community Survey data from 2010–2023. We find little evidence that minimum wage increases reduce employment or labor force participation among people with disabilities, including those with more severe disabilities. While many estimates are statistically imprecise, confidence intervals generally rule out economically meaningful negative employment effects. We likewise find no evidence that terminating subminimum wages reduces employment opportunities for affected workers, and some estimates suggest positive employment effects for groups most likely to have been employed under subminimum wage arrangements. These gains may reflect complementary policies that often accompany repeal, such as Employment First initiatives. Overall, the results provide little support for the view that higher wage floors create disproportionate employment barriers for people with disabilities.