NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "David Escamilla-Guerrero", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Giovanni Peri", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
本文利用20世纪初墨西哥铁路网络可及性的差异，估计其对赴美移民的影响，并评估这种影响在客运铁路服务过时后的长期持续性。采用一种基于历史城市之间最低成本路径构建的工具变量(IV)策略，我们发现，20世纪初具有铁路可及性地点的移民率是不具备铁路可及性地点的四倍。序贯迁移是关键机制：铁路首先促进了流向铁路枢纽的国内流动，随后是向美国的进一步迁移。铁路可及性还推动了结构转型，提高了城市化水平和地方经济发展。就持续性而言，历史上具有铁路可及性的地点在21世纪初赴美总移民率略低，这与地方经济增长降低移民激励的解释一致。然而，特定目的地的迁移模式却表现出显著的持久性：20世纪向加利福尼亚州、亚利桑那州或得克萨斯州输送移民比例较高的地点，在21世纪依然如此，反映了移民网络的持续性。
Abstract
This paper leverages variation in the access to the Mexican railroad network in the early 1900s to estimate its impact on migration to the United States and evaluate its long-run persistence after passenger rail service became obsolete. Using an IV strategy based on least-cost paths between historical cities, we find that locations with railroad access had migration rates four times higher than those without in the early twentieth century. Sequential migration was the key mechanism: railroads first facilitated internal mobility toward railroad hubs, then onward migration to the US. Railroad access also contributed to structural transformation, raising urbanization and local economic development. In terms of persistence, locations with historical railroad access show weakly lower total migration rates to the US in the early 21st century, consistent with local economic growth reducing the incentive to migrate. Yet destination-specific patterns prove remarkably durable: locations that disproportionately sent migrants to California, Arizona, or Texas in the 1900s continued to do so in the 2000s, reflecting the persistence of migrant networks.