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交通基础设施与城市和区域发展

Transportation Infrastructure and Urban and Regional Development
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Gilles Duranton", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Matthew Turner", "affiliation": []}]

中文摘要

评估交通基础设施如何影响人口与经济活动在城市体系内分布的文献主要包含三个部分。理论文献对交通基础设施如何影响城市内部结构作出了稳健的预测,但对于城市体系而言,理论并不能让我们排除太多可能性。城市层面的实证文献确立了这一结论:改善城市交通基础设施会导致郊区迁移,但对城市人口的影响很小。该文献对于理解交通基础设施如何影响人口在城市体系内的分布帮助有限,但已取得一定进展。利用跨国数据考察交通基础设施如何影响城市体系的少量实证文献仍不成熟,且尚无定论。

Abstract

The literature assessing the effects of transportation infrastructure on how people and economic activity distribute themselves across a system of cities has three main parts. The theoretical literature makes robust predictions about how transportation infrastructure affects the internal structure of cities, but for systems of cities, theory does not let us rule much out. The city-level empirical literature establishes that improved urban transportation infrastructure causes suburban migration, but has only a small impact on city population. This literature is less helpful for understanding the effects of transportation infrastructure on the way people are distributed across a system of cities, but has made some progress. The small empirical literature looking at how transportation infrastructure affects systems of cities using cross-country data remains underdeveloped and is inconclusive.
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