Review of Economic Studies · 2026 · [{"name": "Oren Danieli", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research", "Tel Aviv University"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 我提出了一个技能替代型、常规偏向型技术变革（SR-RBTC）模型。在该模型中，技术替代的是常规任务中技能的使用；这与标准RBTC模型形成对比，后者假定技术替代的是工人本身。SR-RBTC模型解释了三个与标准RBTC模型不一致的关键趋势：1）为什么尽管从事常规职业的工人分散在整个工资分布的下半部分，下降的却唯独是中间工资；2）为什么在技术变革持续的同时，中间工资停止了下降；3）为什么常规职业工人的平均工资没有大幅下降。我从该模型推导出两个新的可检验预测：常规职业中技能回报的下降与技能水平的下降。我使用交互固定效应模型证实了这两个预测。由于SR-RBTC违反了标准分解方法所要求的可忽略性假设，我引入一种"偏度分解"，以表明SR-RBTC是工资分布下半部分不平等趋势的主要驱动因素。
Abstract
Abstract I propose a model of skill-replacing routine-biased technological change (SR-RBTC). In this model, technology substitutes for the use of skill in routine tasks, in contrast to standard RBTC models, which assume that technology replaces the workers themselves. The SR-RBTC model explains three key trends that are inconsistent with standard RBTC models: 1) why specifically middle wages declined even though workers in routine occupations are dispersed across the entire bottom half of the wage distribution, 2) why middle wages stopped declining while technological change continued, and 3) why there is no substantial decline in the average wage of workers in routine occupations. I derive two new testable predictions from the model: a decrease in the return to skill and a decrease in skill level in routine occupations. I use an interactive fixed-effects model to confirm both predictions. Since SR-RBTC violates the ignorability assumption required by standard decomposition methods, I introduce a “skewness decomposition” to show that SR-RBTC is the main driver of bottom-half inequality trends.