人口分歧：阿片类药物流行的遗产
Demographic Divergence: The Legacy of the Opioid Epidemic
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Carolina Arteaga", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Victoria Barone", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Stephen Claassen", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
我们研究阿片类药物流行如何影响美国的地方人口动态。利用普渡制药公司将奥施康定定向营销至高癌症死亡率地区所产生的暴露程度差异，我们发现暴露程度更高的通勤区人口增长更低。到2020年，暴露程度每增加一个标准差，18至64岁个体的人口增长率降低2.4个百分点。药物诱发死亡造成的直接死亡率对这些变化的贡献有限。相反，人口损失主要由迁移反应驱动：暴露提高了迁出率，尤其是在受过大学教育的个体中更为明显。这些反应与阿片类药物流行作为一种负面舒适性冲击、恶化地方生活质量的机制相一致。与此相反，我们还记录到生育率上升，到2020年，这一上升部分抵消了上述人口损失。我们的研究发现表明，阿片类药物流行重塑了地方人口构成，并促成了美国各通勤区人口动态的长期分化。
Abstract
We study how the opioid epidemic shaped local population dynamics in the United States. Exploiting variation in exposure that stems from Purdue Pharma's targeted marketing of OxyContin to high-cancer-mortality areas, we find that more exposed commuting zones experienced lower population growth. By 2020, a one-standard-deviation increase in exposure reduced population growth among individuals aged 18 to 64 by 2.4 percentage points. Direct mortality from drug-induced deaths made only a limited contribution to these changes. Instead, population losses were primarily driven by migratory responses: exposure increased out-migration rates, especially among college-educated individuals. These responses are consistent with the opioid epidemic operating as a disamenity shock, deteriorating local quality of life. Working in the opposite direction, we also document a rise in fertility rates that, by 2020, partially counteracts these population losses. Our findings show that the opioid epidemic reshaped local demographic composition and contributed to the long-run divergence in population dynamics across U.S. commuting zones.