行事谨慎？堕胎禁令对性行为的影响

NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "James M. Flynn", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "David R. Munro", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Caitlin K. Myers", "affiliation": []}]

中文摘要

我们估计 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health 案后颁布的全面堕胎禁令对性行为的影响。使用合成双重差分与标准双重差分设计，我们将淋病发病率和非处方避孕用品购买量作为性活动和避孕使用的指标进行分析。我们发现，全面堕胎禁令使15—44岁人群的淋病发病率降低了21%，安全套购买量增加了5.4%。县级层面的分析表明，这一反应反映的是对州政策的认知，而非前往服务提供者的出行距离变化。这些发现与如下框架一致：堕胎限制提高了无保护性行为的感知成本，从而诱导出更谨慎的行为。

Abstract

We estimate the effect of total abortion bans enacted after Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health on sexual behavior. Using synthetic and standard difference-in-differences designs, we analyze gonorrhea rates and over-the-counter contraceptive purchases as indicators of sexual activity and contraceptive use. We find that total abortion bans reduced gonorrhea rates by 21% among the population aged 15–44 and increased condom purchases by 5.4%. County-level analyses suggest the response reflects awareness of state policy rather than changes in travel distance to providers. These findings are consistent with a framework in which abortion restrictions increase the perceived cost of unprotected sex, inducing more cautious behavior.