贝弗里奇曲线变动的分解：对劳动力市场动态与通胀的启示
Decomposing Shifts in the Beveridge Curve: Implications for Labor Market Dynamics and Inflation
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Katharine G. Abraham", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "John C. Haltiwanger", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Lea E. Rendell", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
本文探讨标准劳动力市场紧张度（职位空缺数除以失业人数）与广义劳动力市场紧张度（职位空缺数除以有效求职者的度量——该度量考虑了来自所有来源、包括非劳动力人口和当前在职者在内的潜在雇佣对象）之间的关系。我们表明，标准模型将大部分变异归因于匹配效率的变化，实际上反映的是有效求职者与失业人数之比的变化，而非“真实”匹配效率的变化。在菲利普斯曲线方程中，广义紧张度的表现优于标准紧张度，无论是在紧张度线性进入模型的设定中，还是在拟合效果更好的非线性设定中，均是如此。在区分广义紧张度变动来源的模型中——即区分沿广义贝弗里奇曲线移动所致的变动，与贝弗里奇曲线位移（反映广义匹配效率及其他因素的变化）所致的变动——由贝弗里奇曲线位移引起的紧张度变化能够解释更多的通胀变异。
Abstract
This paper explores the relationship between standard labor market tightness (vacancies divided by unemployment) and generalized labor market tightness (vacancies divided by a measure of effective searchers that accounts for potential hires from all sources including those out of the labor force or currently employed). We show that much of what the standard model attributes to variation in matching efficiency reflects changes in the ratio of effective searchers to unemployment rather than changes in “true” matching efficiency. Generalized tightness outperforms standard tightness in Phillips curve equations, both in models with tightness entering linearly and in better-fitting models with tightness entering nonlinearly. In models that distinguish between movements in generalized tightness due to movements along the generalized Beveridge curve versus Beveridge curve shifts (reflecting changes in generalized matching efficiency and other factors), changes in tightness due to Beveridge curve shifts explain more of the variation in inflation.