美国的空气污染与内部迁移
Air Pollution and Internal Migration in the United States
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Michael Keller", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Christopher R. Knittel", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Benjamin Krebs", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Simon Luechinger", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
我们估计了2005—2019年美国PM₂.₅污染对通勤区之间人口迁移的影响。为处理迁出地与迁入地通勤区污染水平之间的相关性及潜在内生性问题，我们估计了一个二元（配对）迁移模型，并分离出源自远距离燃煤电厂、导致迁出地和迁入地污染发生永久性变化的部分。年度面板估计与长差分估计表明，空气污染在迁居决策中发挥关键作用。对于典型通勤区而言，2005—2019年间PM₂.₅浓度中被分离出的部分平均下降3.85 μg/m³，将减少迁出并增加迁入，合计每年相当于人口的2%。
Abstract
We estimate the effect of PM₂.₅ pollution on migration between commuting zones in the United States from 2005-2019. To account for the correlation between origin and destination commuting zones’ pollution levels and potential endogeneity, we estimate a dyadic migration model and isolate permanent changes in origin and destination pollution emanating from distant coal-fired power plants. Annual panel and long-difference estimates indicate that air pollution plays a key role in relocation decisions. For the typical commuting zone, an isolated average 2005-2019 PM₂.₅ concentration decrease of 3.85 μg/m³ would avert out-migration and increase in-migration, totaling 2 percent of the population annually.