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数据驱动的自动化

Data-Driven Automation
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Maryam Farboodi", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Andrew J. Koh", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Anchi Xia", "affiliation": []}]

中文摘要

我们构建了一个数据驱动自动化的动态模型,其中数据:(i) 具有异质性且是任务特定的;(ii) 作为经济活动的副产品内生积累;(iii) 存在溢出效应,使得由某一任务生成的数据可以提高另一任务的生产率。在自动化的转型路径上,数据发挥双重作用:既提高已自动化任务的生产率,又扩展自动化前沿。我们推导出经济在长期中实现部分自动化与完全自动化的严格条件。在后一种情形下,自动化呈现出丰富的短期动态,取决于数据溢出的模式,但在长期中始终缓慢:由劳动生产的任务份额随时间按幂律渐近衰减。我们表明,经济通常是无效率的,并分析了计划者如何最优地倾斜数据积累的方向。在内生资本积累下,数据驱动的自动化会带来爆炸式增长,但长期工资却停滞不前。

Abstract

We build a dynamic model of data-driven automation in which data (i) is heterogeneous and task-specific; (ii) accumulates endogenously as a byproduct of economic activity; and (iii) exhibits spillovers such that data generated by one task can augment the productivity of another. Along the transition path of automation, data plays a dual role in simultaneously augmenting the productivity of already-automated tasks and expanding the automation frontier. We derive tight conditions for the economy to be partially versus fully automated in the long-run. In the latter case, automation exhibits rich short-run dynamics that depend on the pattern of data spillovers but is always slow in the long-run: the share of tasks produced by labor decays asymptotically as a power law in time. We show that the economy is generically inefficient and analyze how a planner optimally tilts the direction of data accumulation. With endogenous capital accumulation, data-driven automation generates explosive growth but stagnant long-run wages.
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