在线活动能否被监管？来自成人网站的证据

NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Matthew Brown", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Emily J. Davis", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Devin G. Pope", "affiliation": []}]

中文摘要

网络监管的后果取决于用户能够规避限制或转向不合规平台的程度。自2023年以来，美国25个州相继实施了年龄验证法，导致包括Pornhub在内的知名成人网站对所有用户限制本地访问。我们利用个体层面面板数据研究了这些访问限制如何影响浏览行为。结果显示，访问限制使用户在成人网站上花费的总时间减少了约10%。具体而言，在限制实施前，用户在顶级成人网站上花费的每100小时中，约50小时仍可通过从未限制访问的不合规网站获得，30小时通过基于VPN的规避手段得以维持，10小时从合规网站转移到不合规网站，另有10小时不再用于访问成人网站。

Abstract

The consequences of online regulations depend on the extent to which users can circumvent restrictions or substitute toward noncompliant platforms. Since 2023, 25 U.S. states have implemented age verification laws that caused prominent adult websites (including Pornhub) to restrict local access for all users. We study how these restrictions affected browsing activity using individual-level panel data. Access restrictions reduced overall time spent on adult sites by roughly 10%. Specifically, for every 100 hours spent on top adult sites before restrictions, about 50 hours remained accessible at noncompliant sites that never restricted access, 30 hours persisted through VPN-based circumvention, 10 hours were substituted from compliant sites to noncompliant sites, and 10 hours were no longer spent on adult sites.