失业保险、起薪与工作: 来自跨州企业的证据
Unemployment Insurance, Starting Salaries, and Jobs: Evidence from Multi-state Firms
Review of Economic Studies · 2026 · [{"name": "Gordon B. Dahl", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research"]}, {"name": "Matthew Knepper", "affiliation": ["Amazon (United States)", "Amazon (Germany)"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 我们研究七个州永久性削减失业保险金30%—64%对劳动力市场的影响。利用关联的企业—经营场所数据，我们发现，位于改革州的经营场所，其就业增长比同一企业位于其他州的经营场所高出0.8%—1.3%。采用类似的多州企业设计，改革州的起薪低1.2%—5.5%，同一职位的发布薪资下降3.2%—3.5%。改革后就业与工资的负向共同变动表明存在劳动供给冲击，并削弱了由劳动需求的混杂性变化驱动上述结果的可能性。我们的发现与如下机制一致：随着外部选择机会减少，工人降低其保留工资，而雇主借此提供更低工资并扩大就业。
Abstract
Abstract We study the labour market effects of permanent 30%–64% reductions on unemployment insurance benefits available in seven states. Leveraging linked firm-establishment data, we find that establishments based on reform states experience employment increases that are 0.8%–1.3% larger than those of the same firm’s establishments in other states. Using a similar multi-state firm design, starting salaries are 1.2%–5.5% lower in reform states and posted salaries for the same job fall by 3.2%–3.5%. The negative co-movement of employment and wages after the reform suggests a labour supply shock and mitigates against confounding changes in labour demand driving the results. Our findings are consistent with workers lowering their reservation wages as outside options fall, and employers take advantage of this by offering lower wages and increasing employment.