中文摘要
拉丁美洲这场意义深远的生育转变如今已成历史，这使我们得以从队列视角考察终身生育子女数的下降。利用17个拉丁美洲国家的人口普查微观数据，我们按次国家级地区追踪了20世纪20年代至70年代出生的女性队列，以考察队列生育率下降在多大程度上与其他人口和社会经济进程同步发生。在各次国家级地区内部，各队列的曾生育子女数随死亡率下降呈一比一下降。城市化、多代同堂居住、女性及丈夫受教育程度、女性就业和非农部门的扩张，均可预测曾生育子女数和存活子女数的下降；但在调整协变量后，女性受教育程度和产业部门构成是其中的主导力量。生育率下降与儿童结果（包括入学率、识字率、小学完成率和未就业情况）的改善并无系统性关联。这些队列层面的事实对以女性工作和儿童教育为核心的生育率下降理论构成挑战，但支持了强调女性教育的其他理论。
Abstract
Latin America's momentous fertility transition is now in the domain of history, allowing a cohort perspective on the decline of completed fertility. Using census microdata from 17 Latin American countries, we track female birth cohorts from the 1920s to the 1970s by subnational region to document the extent to which cohort fertility decline coincided with other demographic and socioeconomic processes. Across cohorts within subnational regions, children ever born fell one-for-one with mortality decline. Expansions in urbanization, multigenerational living, women's and husbands' education, women's employment, and the non-agricultural sector all predicted declines in ever-born and surviving fertility, but women's education and sectoral composition were the dominant forces after covariate adjustment. Fertility decline was not systematically linked with improvements in children's outcomes, including school enrollment, literacy, primary completion, and non-employment. These cohort facts challenge theories of fertility decline centered on women's work and children's education but support others emphasizing women's education.